Visual Argument Structure Tool (VAST) by Leising, Grenke & Cramer
2024-10-25
Conjecture: We have a refined methodology¹ to test theories (e.g., experimental designs, statistical methods, preregistration, …). But we had (so far) no good methodology for constructing theories.
¹ “A scientific methodology is an ordered series of steps that assist a researcher in reaching a desired end state from a specified starting point.” (Borsboom et al., 2021)
Leising, D., Grenke, O., & Cramer, M. (2023). Visual Argument Structure Tool (VAST) Version 1.0. Meta-Psychology, 7. https://doi.org/10.15626/MP.2021.2911
This is a brief introduction into some of the core features of VAST. In doing this, I will simplify a few features and ignore others completely.
Six types of relationships:
I
in the box symbolizes a concept
I
) are abstract and basically arbitraryn
stands for a naming relationship""
in VAST displays.A concept may have any number of names. Here, all three names are synonyms regarding concept I
.
This expresses the idea that the same name is used for conditions that may not be the same. This name might thus be a homonym.
F
and T
F
Note: In the original VAST paper, the Data concept has a different shape (but that shape is not available in the Graphviz system used to create the graphs in this presentation):
r
denotes reasoning relationshipsp
stands for a predictionc
stands for causal effectsThis display is supposed to capture the idea that …
Readability may often be promoted by setting naming relationships aside.
X
→ Y
: this relationship is considered relevant and positive (i.e., the more X the more Y)p
: “wearing glasses” makes it 70 percent likely for a person to also be “smart”r
: It is 90 percent reasonable to assume someone “is in love with you” when that person “giggles a lot while talking to you”c
: being “obese” makes it 50 percent likely for someone to develop “Diabetes Type II” as a consequencec
)p
)p
-path is the next author’s theoretical c
-path(A): “Mira is assumes that she has presented Robert’s and Ayse’s views correctly (with strength > 0.5, which is the default for IS and OUGHT elements). This implies that these two have different and incompatible statements about the single causal effect on I
.
(B): Mira says (normatively) that Robert and Ayse should get along well.
(C): Mira is certain (relationship strength = -1
) that the big box below (i.e., the incompatible views) causally leads to Robert and Ayse not getting along well.
Formal modeling in psychology - Empirisches Praktikum, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München